Hillary Clinton isn’t a Myth, She’s a Donkey’s Noose

Look, the fact of the matter is that at this point there is NO scenario in which Clinton wins either the Democratic nomination or the general election, so please, for the love of God, stop giving in to this sensational form of political analysis and don’t mention it any further. What’s really interesting is that Clinton has rolled out the Democratic nomination electoral map to show that she is the more qualified candidate in the general election. Psychologically interesting as it seems in describing Clinton as a wishful thinker, there isn’t any general election scenario that has a Democrat winning Texas or some of the other states she’s claimed to have won in the nomination process. The translation being is that they don’t have any value to a Democratic candidate, no matter who’s nominated.

The simple truth is that if Barack is nominated, all of Clinton’s supporters will vote for him and if Clinton is nominated, despite overwhelming Democratic public opinion to the contrary (i.e. by way of the not-so-super-delegates), many supporters, myself included, will abstain from this election altogether and voter turnout will be stymied. Not to mention the cynicism that will boil up, almost certainly creating a mountain for future Democrats to climb in converting voters. It also may very seriously create a schism in the Party.

The reality of the general election electoral map and any professional political scientist will tell you this, is that despite the sorry state of affairs, the general election map this year varies very little from the outcomes of 2000 and 2004. The reason is partisanship is the defining factor. All the statistics show that it is very clear that people vote with their Party. The only hope for a Democrat to shape the 2008 election is turnout. That can happen 1 of 2 ways. Either people turnout for the Democrats or the Republicans don’t show up to vote for John McCain. Both scenarios are possible but what is also clear is that Hillary Clinton is not going to generate the same levels of turnout as Barack Obama. And the reality is that although many conservatives are really proud of their 3 and 1/2 million popular vote victory over Kerry/Edwards in 2004, the truth is that Kerry would have been elected president if just 60,000 voters in Ohio changed their minds. This is because the Electoral College elects presidents, not necessarily the popular vote total.

So how’s this for a couple of likely scenarios; Hillary Clinton gets the nomination due to Party insiders who flip-off the will of the Party membership. Republicans mobilize the greatest conservative get out the vote movement to stop her as if Ronald Reagan was somehow resurrected. Hillary, since she’s such a polarizing political figure is resoundingly defeated in the general election because many of the newly-energized Democrats pulling for Obama, have stayed home, feeling slighted by a Party that, just like the Republicans, only cares about the how’s of attaining power, instead of the why’s.

The other scenario involves Barack Obama getting the Democratic nomination. The electoral map from 2004 doesn’t change at all except for 2 states, Virginia, which seems to be tending blue with the recent elections of Democrats Tim Kaine and Jim Webb and New Mexico, due in large part to its very popular Governor Bill Richardson running on the Vice-Presidential ticket. And while I don’t have a electoral map sitting in front of me, if I’m recalling correctly from my analysis of the 2004 election, that’s just enough to put the Democrats over the top. No need to win any other states. Democrats don’t need Florida and they don’t need Ohio. They can forget ‘em. They just won’t get any credit for electing the most transformative political figure since FDR.

Governor Bill Richardson for President

The Indy Voice is officially endorsing Governor Bill Richardson for President. Richardson possesses the most extensive resume of any candidate as a 2-term governor, U.S. Representative, Secretary of Energy, educator, consultant, board member & ambassador. Bill Richardson is the only one of the top four candidates that firmly pledges the removal of ALL U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of his term. He also recognizes the reality that the presence of U.S. troops in a sovereign and proud nation like Iraq is causing more problems than it’s solving and the only path to peace is without armed foreign forces on the ground.

Richardson is one tough S.O.B. with extensive foreign policy credentials including negotiating the release of hostages many times, in multiple countries. Most importantly, and in stark contrast to the leading candidate, Richardson will not further divide the country and his multi-cultural background will likely bring more Latinos into the Democratic fold. Additionally, he will restore America’s position in the world, doesn’t require “on the job training” and will be a practical agent for change in this country and that’s why The Indy Voice is proudly supporting Governor Bill Richardson for President.